Exploit is exactly what Activision did with the Guitar Hero series. In the last two years they released 14 different Guitar Hero games. Activision clearly failed to see that consumers were getting tired of the music genre formula, and had to cancel the franchise due to lack of sales. Activision bought a property, exploited it for all the money they could, and then they threw away the dead horse once it they couldn’t beat it anymore. Could the next fall from grace happen to Call of Duty?

While the CoD series hasn’t been exploited in the same way that Guitar Hero was, with numerous different games being released every year, it still has seen six games this console generation. Compare that to a franchise like Final Fantasy, which is on entry thirteen, but has been going since the NES days. Those thirteen games have spanned five console generations. At the end of this year it is expected that we will see Modern Warfare 3, which will make it the seventh game in the series to be released this console generation. How many is one too many war-based first person shooters for consumers to buy?

Industry Gamers asked several well-known industry analysts their thoughts on what the demise of Guitar Hero could mean for the current Activision flag-ship, Call of Duty. The general view of the six analysts interviewed was that these two franchises are not comparable, and that the GH failure was not the fault of Activison:

Billy Pidgeon, M2 Research:

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Securities:

Jesse Divnich, EEDAR:

Colin Sebastian, Lazard Capital Markets:

Will the CoD series go down the same path as GH, or will it continue to sell year after year? That is a tough question to answer. The analysts say that CoD and GH are two different types of games, and while that is true, all gamers can get tired of playing the same game with little to no changes each year.

Call of Duty has had the same basic multiplayer structure since Call of Duty 4, which released in 2007. Each game released since CoD4 has made adjustments to the formula, but the core formula is still the same. Is that formula enough to keep millions playing for years to come, or will Activision need to implement some sweeping changes at some point in the near future?

While the analysts are probably right in saying that CoD is more resilient that GH, I still think it could fall just as hard. With EA desperately gunning for Activision’s FPS crown, and the turmoil surrounding Modern Warfare 3 at Infinity Ward, this year could be the start of CoD’s decline.

One reason the CoD franchise has been at the top for so long has been the fact that the games are high quality. With Activision pulling other studios like Raven and Sledgehammer to help out what is left of Infinity Ward, is the next entry in the series going to live up to the quality of the past titles? All it would take is one bad mark on the record and for EA to hit big with Battlefield 3, and CoD could start sliding down the path of Guitar Hero. If it stops making them huge amounts of profits, and another franchise takes its place as Activision’s darling, Call of Duty may be in just as much trouble as Guitar Hero some day.

Ranters, what do you think? Is Call of Duty immune to the issues that contributed to Guitar Hero’s demise, or is it just a matter of time before CoD suffers GH’s fate?

Source: Industry Gamers